Market to remain Steady says Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s third quarter housing report

New home construction is anticipated to see very modest growth in 2012 with an estimated 183,900 housing starts verses the 183,200 estimated by year end for 2011.  Resale of existing properties is set to follow the same pattern with an estimated total of 458,000 transactions over the 2011 number at 446,700.

What does this mean for the Mortgage Brokerage Industry in Canada? 

With the relatively flat projection it means that we will still see a strong real estate market.  With very moderate growth projected, 2012 is a year where the brokerage community will need to enhance their client communication and marketing strategy.  The ability of the mortgage broker to have strong relationships with the consumer based on providing sound expertise gives us an edge when looking for growth opportunities.  Consumers are more and more seeking options when pushing forward with the largest financial transaction of their lives.  With the banks continuing to push for a market share grab, and the overshadowing uncertainty of the world’s economic climate, the broker channel is uniquely positioned to give comfort with a focus on what is best for the consumer verses selling one product line that is aggressively cross sold.

Consumers in Canada continue to experience credit strain as indicated by a recent Royal Bank report where 38% of Canadians now indicate that they are not as comfortable with their level of consumer debt as they were 12 months ago.  This combined with an ever more aggressive program of pushing unsecured lending by the banks, means that the trend for continued expansion of personal debt will rise.  Place the burden of additional mortgage lending restrictions into the mix and the need for sound advice grows stronger.  Consumer Proposals are continuing to see a dramatic increase as people seek out solutions to their debt woes especially as the banks and other lenders do not offer solutions that focus on long term solutions.

All indicators tell us that keeping in touch with clients with relevant and timely information is the foundation to creating a strong and diverse portfolio of clients.  Being able to offer clients sound advice, and additional options on credit and debt management will become ever more important as we move into the New Year.

Canadian Home Pricing and Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence rose by 4 points in April over the previous month, according to the Conference Board of Canada consumer confidence index. It also revealed a sharp shift in Canadians' attitudes toward making major purchases such as homes, appliances and automobiles.

For the first time in almost a year, survey respondents who think now is a good time to make a major purchase outnumber those who don’t. While results vary by province, news reports on the index highlight that Canadians overall seem to be more positive about job prospects and financial security.

As consumer confidence goes up – more good news for prospective home buyers is that prices appear to be levelling off in several real estate markets. The Taranet - National Bank of Canada House Price Index is a composite index of housing prices in six metropolitan areas – Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver. In February, it showed a modest 0.08 overall rise in repeat sale prices over the previous month, with prices going up in some markets and down in others.

Inflation, along with growing consumer and investor confidence, has economists speculating that the central bank will raise its key interest rate on May 31. Some predict it could go as high as two percent by year’s end and put downward pressure on housing prices.

If you can absorb the effect of a rise in interest rates on your monthly mortgage payments, it might be worth waiting to see where prices go; if you're sensitive to rate fluctuations and seeking a long-term property investment, now may be the time to make your move.

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Constantine Isslamow | Broker of Record -

CENTURY 21 United Realty Inc. Brokerage
Direct Line: 705.743.4444 |
Constantine.Isslamow@century21.ca
www.ConstantineIsslamow.com

March 2011 Housing Starts

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 188,800 units in March, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is up from 183,700 units in February 2011.

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Constantine Isslamow
Broker of Record

Century 21 United Realty Inc. Brokerage
705-743-4444

www.constantineisslamow.com

constantine.isslamow@century21.ca

Canada's hot resale housing market starting to cool

OTTAWA - May 17th, 2010 - Home sales activity in Canada came up short of the record for the month of April and new listings continued to climb, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards numbered 52,042 units in April 2010. This is less than one per cent short of the record for national sales activity during the month of April, which was set in 2007. Compared to April 2009, national activity was up 20 per cent.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity slipped 2.6 per cent from the previous month, and now stands 6.8 per cent below the peak reached in December 2009. More than half of the decline in activity over the first four months of 2010 from in British Columbia, while activity in Ontario and Quebec remains at or near record levels.

"The easing trend in national sales activity masks a rising trend in a number of major markets," said CREA President Georges Pahud. "Real estate is local, so buyers and sellers should engage the services of a REALTOR® for knowledge about housing market trends in their market."

Some 99,901 homes were newly listed for sale on Canadian MLS® Systems in April 2010, surpassing the previous record for the month of April set in 2008 by six-tenths of one per cent. A total of 236,397 residential properties were listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems at the end of April 2010, down 1.9 per cent from levels one year earlier.

As for the national average price of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems, that figure rose 12.2 per cent over this time last year. This is a smaller increase compared to those recorded over the past eight months. Bucking the national trend, price gains continue to increase in a number of major markets in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec.

With last year’s string of downwardly skewed average price values having now mostly passed, and with activity in British Columbia’s lower mainland having settled down, year-over-year national average price comparisons are coming back into line with changes in the national weighted average price.

The weighted average price compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 11.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April 2010. Similarly, the residential average price in Canada’s major markets climbed 12.9 per cent year-over-year in April, while the weighted major market average price rose 12.1 per cent.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory stood at 4.5 months in April 2010. This is down from levels one year ago (5.6 months) and April 2008 (4.7 months), but up compared to April levels from 2004 through 2007. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, months of inventory stood at 5.3 months in April, the highest level since last May.

"Next month will mark the passage of one year since the national average price rebounded from the recessionary trough to return to the pre-recession peak, so the rise in the national average price is expected to be more subdued next month, " said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "The national average price could potentially be skewed higher over the next couple of months if buyers of higher priced homes in Ontario and British Columbia move their purchase decision forward to beat the introduction of the HST in July."

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.

Canada’s Economic Action Plan Creates Jobs and Improves Social Housing in Ontario

ORANGEVILLE, ON, March 26, 2010 — The Government of Canada announced today that a housing co-operative located in Orangeville will receive more than $187,000 through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments.

The announcement was made by David Tilson, Member of Parliament for Dufferin – Caledon, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, our government is taking action to help ensure our economic recovery and create the conditions for long-term growth," said MP Tilson. “Funding renovation and retrofit projects, like this one, will not only improve the quality of life of its residents by keeping their homes safe and affordable, but it will also help stimulate the local economy and create local jobs.”

The Government of Canada, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, announced $1 billion for social housing renovation and retrofit. Of the $1 billion, $850 million is being delivered by provinces and territories on a cost-matched basis for existing federally assisted social housing projects which they administer on behalf of the partnership. The remaining $150 million is being delivered by CMHC for existing federally assisted off-reserve housing which it directly administers. Eligible repairs include general improvements, energy efficiency upgrades or conversions, and modifications in support of persons with disabilities.

The housing co-operative that will receive a contribution from the Government of Canada being announced today is Shaw’s Creek Co-operative Homes Inc.

“We congratulate and thank the federal government, MP Tilson and CMHC for making a sound investment to help ensure that this affordable community is preserved as a legacy for the long-term benefit of its residents,“ said Ken Elliott, President of the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada. “Today’s announcement is an excellent example of stimulus funding that works towards preserving jobs, assisting the local economy, and protecting valuable affordable housing assets for Canadians.”

“We are delighted that our co-operative will benefit from the federal government’s renovation and retrofit initiative delivered by CMHC,” said Robert Dicks, Vice-President of Shaw’s Creek Co-operative Homes Inc. in Orangeville. “Not only will this funding make our co-op more energy efficient, but it will ensure that the homes at Shaw’s Creek Co-operative Homes Inc. are available to meet the needs of future generations.”

More information on this and other measures in Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the federal government’s plan to stimulate the economy and protect those hit hardest by the global recession, can be found at: www.actionplan.gc.ca.

To find out more about how the Government of Canada and CMHC are working to build stronger homes and communities for all Canadians, call CMHC at 1-800-668-2642 or visit: www.cmhc.ca/housingactionplan.

December 2009 Average MLS resale price for local markets

City December 2008 December 2009
Halifax $234,063 $246,380
Saint John $156,923 $178,037
Quebec $203,239 $231,235
Montreal $267,050 $285,356
Ottawa $272,672 $311,604
Toronto $361,284 $411,931
Hamilton/Burlington $240,073 $285,795
Winnipeg $182,814 $209,963
Saskatoon $266,411 $291,554
Calgary $362,557 $394,300
Edmonton $310,974 $319,201
Vancouver $560,953 $627,582
Victoria $444,222 $522,211
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

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Constantine Isslamow
Real Estate Broker / Mortgage Broker
Century 21United Realty Inc. Brokerage / CENTUM Core Financial Inc.
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Constantine Isslamow License#: M08005391

Flurry of December home sales sets Canadian record

The Canadian housing market has roared into the new year at top speed, with existing home sales activity reaching the highest level ever for December, and with prices still rising.

According to statistics by the Canadian Real Estate Association, residential sales numbered 27,744 units in December 2009, a whopping 72 per cent above activity in December 2008. At this time last year, the CREA was reporting the lowest activity in a decade.

"Sales activity in 2009 came in like a lamb and went out like a lion," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "The continuation of unusually low interest rates may keep national sales activity near current levels over the coming months, as will a blip in housing demand in Ontario and British Columbia from homebuyers motivated to beat the introduction of the HST."

New records for the month of December were reported in Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland & Labrador. The whole fourth quarterly performance of 2009 was also the strongest ever, with a seasonally adjusted 137,957 homes trading hands, up 2.6 per cent from the previous record set in the first quarter of 2007.

On an annual basis, the 2009 numbers were still down 10.7 per cent from the peak reached in 2007. The latest spurt has impacted prices, as the national average home price was up 19 per cent year-over-year in December to reach $337,410. Nearly all local markets saw new records set for average prices, according to CREA, with the exception of Alberta.

These results will likely continue fears of a housing bubble in Canada. CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump says that is not the case, and the market could slowly start to correct itself in half a year. "Cooler heads recognize that many of the recent gains reflect temporary factors that could fade by summer," he said.

Source: www.mortgagebrokernews.ca

It's Your Career - I'm here to Support YOU!
Constantine Isslamow
Real Estate Broker / Mortgage Broker
Century 21United Realty Inc. Brokerage / CENTUM Core Financial Inc.
Independently Owned and Operated
Friends, followers, and connections are the way of the future.
Twitter / Facebook / LinkedIn / Blog
CENTUM Core Financial Inc. Brokerage License #: 10642
Constantine Isslamow License#: M08005391

Existing home sales activity remains strong in November

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association, existing home sales activity remained upbeat in November 2009. The current strength of housing demand stands in sharp contrast to weak activity recorded one year ago.

A total of 36,383 residential properties traded hands via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards in November 2009. Up 73 per cent from year-ago levels, activity was down just four tenths of a per cent from the highest level of activity for the month posted in November 2007. Home sales set new records for the month of November in Ontario and Quebec.

“National home sales activity last month shows how strongly the housing market has rebounded since the beginning of the year,’ said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “As we predicted last April, the rebound in resale housing activity led the overall Canadian economy out of recession.”

The unprecedented year-over-year gain in activity underscores the extent to which demand has recovered from one year ago, when news of the global financial crisis hammered consumer confidence. Year-over-year gains were biggest in British Columbia (165 per cent) and Ontario (77 per cent).

Since the beginning of 2009, some 437,507 homes have been sold through Canadian MLS® Systems. This is up five per cent from activity in the first 11 months of 2008, but below levels for the period in each of the previous three years.

The national residential average price was $337,231 in November, a gain of 19 per cent compared to one year ago. For the year-to-date, the average price is up 4.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. The year-over-year increase in November continues to reflect the high degree to which the average was skewed downward last year by plummeting activity in Canada’s priciest markets, and then upward by rebounding activity. Average price in November edged back from the peak reached in October.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national MLS® weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted average price climbed 13 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November. This is a smaller increase compared to the year-over-year gain of 14 per cent recorded the previous month.

The residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 20 per cent year-over-year to $368,665. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price which rose 11 per cent from last November.

The return of strong demand and headline average price gains is beginning to draw more sellers back to the market. Seasonally adjusted new listings coming onto Boards’ MLS® Systems across Canada rose five per cent on a month-over-month basis in November to 69,110 units. This is the biggest monthly increase since January 2008.
Despite the uptick in new listings, the sharp rise in resale housing demand continues to draw down inventories. There were 183,710 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of November 2009. This is down 23 per cent from levels reported one year ago, and the seventh month in a row in which inventories have declined from year-ago levels.

Nationally, there were four months of inventory in November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in November 2009 stood at five months, up slightly from the previous month (4.6 months). An increase is normal at this time of year, since demand tends to ease relative to supply over autumn and winter months. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

“The latest batch of seasonally adjusted statistics may reflect distortions in the seasonal adjustment procedure due to an extraordinarily weak housing market one year ago,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Deteriorating housing affordability will reign in sales activity as the overall economy further improves and the pool of buyers who qualify for financing shrinks.”
http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/Nov09_e.pdf
(CREA 11/15/09)

It's Your Career - I'm Here To Support YOU!
Constantine Isslamow
Real Estate Broker/Mortgage Broker/Manager
Century 21 United Realty Inc. Brokerage/CENTUM Core Financial Inc.
Independently Owned and Operated

Friends, followers, and connections are the way of the future.

CENTUM Core Financial Inc. Brokerage License #: 10642
Constantine Isslamow License#: M08005391